Comparing Methods for Estimating Demographics in Racially Polarized Voting Analyses-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Comparing Methods for Estimating Demographics in Racially Polarized Voting Analyses

Published:2023-08-28 Issue: Volume: Page:
ISSN:0049-1241
Container-title:Sociological Methods & Research
language:en
Short-container-title:Sociological Methods & Research

Author:

Decter-Frain Ari¹^ORCID,Sachdeva Pratik²^ORCID,Collingwood Loren³^ORCID,Murayama Hikari⁴^ORCID,Burke Juandalyn⁵^ORCID,Barreto Matt⁶,Henderson Scott⁷^ORCID,Wood Spencer⁸^ORCID,Zingher Joshua⁹^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Brooks School of Public Policy, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA

2. Social Science Data Laboratory (D-Lab), University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA

3. Political Science, University of New Mexico College of Arts and Sciences, Albuquerque, NM, USA

4. Energy and Resources Group, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA

5. Biomedical Informatics and Medical Education, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA, USA

6. Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA

7. Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington College of the Environment, Seattle, WA, USA

8. EarthLab, University of Washington College of the Environment, Seattle, WA, USA

9. Political Science and Geography, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USA

Abstract

We consider the cascading effects of researcher decisions throughout the process of quantifying racially polarized voting (RPV). We contrast three methods of estimating precinct racial composition, Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG), fully Bayesian BISG, and Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP), and two algorithms for performing ecological inference (EI), King’s EI and EI:RxC using eiCompare. Using data from two different elections we identify circumstances in which different combinations of methods produce divergent results, comparing against ground-truth data where available. We first find that BISG outperforms CVAP at estimating racial composition, though fully Bayesian BISG does not yield further improvements. Next, in a statewide election, we find that all combinations of methods yield similarly reliable estimates of RPV. However, county-level analyses and results from a non-partisan school board election reveal that BISG and CVAP produce divergent estimates of Black preferences in elections with low turnout and few precincts. Our results suggest that methodological choices can meaningfully alter conclusions about RPV, particularly in smaller, low-turnout elections.

Funder

Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Sociology and Political Science,Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

Link

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/00491241231192383

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