Multiregional Estimation of Gross Internal Migration Flows

Abstract

A multiregional model of gross internal migration flows is presented in this article. The interdependence of economic factors across all regions is recognized by imposing a non-stochastic adding-up constraint that requires total immigration to equal total outmigration in each time period. An iterated system estimation technique is used to obtain asymptotically consistent and efficient parameter estimates. The model is estimated for gross migration flows among the Canadian provinces over the period 1962-86 and then is used to examine the likelihood of a wash-out effect in net migration models. The results indicate that previous approaches that use net migration equations may not always be empirically justified.