The Factors of Urban Population Growth: Net Immigration versus Natural Increase

Abstract

As a country evolves from a traditional to an advanced society, the part of urban growth that is due to net immigration follows a simple pattern, which can be described by an inverted U-shaped curve: it first increases, then passes through a maximum, and decreases thereafter. This hypothesis is confirmed by quantitative analysis using time-series and cross-section data. The analysis suggests that in the second half of this century natural increase often provides a slightly higher contribution to urban population growth than net immigration.