Migration Reversals in Perspective: The Long-Wave Evidence

Abstract

Although the pattern of polarization reversal reported by Vining and Pallone in the 1970s and the re-emergence of core-ward net migration that they now report for the 1980s are problematic if viewed from the perspective of a short-term time horizon, they are easily understandable in a long-wave context. Evidence is provided for 55-year waves of urbanward migration, each of which reached its nadir during the nation's major stagflation crises. The periodic repetitions of the phenomena described by Vining and Pallone suggest the relevance of the interpretations provided by long-wave theory.