Spatially Disaggregating Employment Growth Estimates

Abstract

Planning for and managing urban growth and development are major issues facing planners and policy makers in achieving a sustainable future for a metropolitan region. Significant impacts are found in metropolitan regions because of jobs-housing imbalances. Such imbalance occurs when residential areas are a considerable distance from locations of employment, and as a result there is a need for substantial commuter travel. This article develops an approach for estimating future jobs by sector in local areas under conditions of growth and change, assuming that commuters will seek greater efficiencies in the journey to work. An optimization modeling approach is proposed to identify scenarios of improved jobs-housing balance. An application is illustrated for the South East Queensland (SEQ) region of Australia.