Advances in Quantitative Techniques for Making Medical Decisions

Abstract

Articles relating decision theory to medical problems have appeared in the medical literature over the past thirtyyears. Mostof the work important to recent advances has been performed in the past 10 to 15 years. We describe the progress which occurred between 1978 and 1988: an increased acceptance of quantitative approaches, advances in analytical techniques, simplification of older methods to enhance accessibility, and a better understanding of the interface between methods that prescribe how decisions should be made and those that describe how decisions actually are made. We also discuss problems that have not been overcome and those which reflect the "growing pains" of success, including increased scrutiny by non-methodologist medical content experts.