A nonlinear Wiener degradation model integrating degradation data under accelerated stresses and real operating environment

Abstract

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction in real operating environment (ROE) plays an important role in condition-based maintenance. However, the life information in ROE is limited, especially for some long-life products. In such cases, accelerated degradation test (ADT) is an effective method to collect data and then the accelerated degradation data are converted to normal level of accelerated stresses through acceleration factors. However, the stresses in ROE are different from normal stresses since there are some other stresses except normal stresses, which cannot be accelerated, but still have impact on the degradation. To predict the RUL in ROE, a nonlinear Wiener degradation model is proposed based on failure mechanism invariant principle which is the precondition and requirement of an ADT and a calibration factor is introduced to calibrate the difference between ROE and normal stresses. Moreover, the unit-to-unit variability is considered in the concern model. Based upon the proposed approach, the RUL distribution is derived in closed form. The unknown parameters in the model are obtained by a new two-step method through fuzing converted degradation data in normal stresses and degradation data in ROE. Finally, the validity of the proposed model is demonstrated through several simulation data and a case study.