Optimal block replacement based on expert judgement method

Author:

Dehsoukhteh Somayyeh Shahraki1,Razmkhah Mostafa1ORCID,Castanier Bruno2

Affiliation:

1. Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematical Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

2. Laboratoire Angevin de Recherche en Ingenierie des Systemes (LARIS), Universite d Angers, Angers, France

Abstract

Applying the theory of uncertainty is a good approach to study the reliability of a system when there is a little frequency of suitable data. Based on this theory, the policy of block replacement with minimal repair is considered assuming the system lifetime follows a power law process. The unknown parameters are estimated according to evidence theory that affects the epistemic uncertainty. The Dempster-Shafer as well as Yager rules are applied to aggregate the judgements and mental estimates of two or more experts. After determining the unknown parameters, a judgement interval is derived for the optimal replacement time using the long-run cost criterion.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

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