Incorporation of Estimated Community Viral Load Before HIV Diagnosis for Enhancing Epidemiologic Investigations

Abstract

Currently, no studies have specifically incorporated population-level viral load measures for analyzing temporal trends of HIV infection in the Asia Pacific. With the use of longitudinal data from 950 HIV-infected heterosexual male and 1331 men who have sex with men managed at a major HIV clinic in Hong Kong between 1985 and 2012, viral load changes at population levels were compared. We back-calculated seroconversion year of each diagnosed patient and estimated the population-level viral load under the framework recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Full community viral load, a newly designed measure incorporating diagnosed and undiagnosed HIV-infected patients, was 3 to 8 times higher than community viral load derived from diagnosed patients only. The growth curve of full community viral load was 5 years ahead of other viral load measures, the shape of which lent support to the phenomenon of local transmission of men who have sex with men but not among heterosexual male in the predominantly Chinese HIV community in Hong Kong.