Rethinking Moving beyond Deterrence: A Partial Replication Study

Abstract

We assess Dugan and Chenoweth’s Rational Choice-based argument regarding moderating effects of indiscriminate conciliatory state actions on levels of terrorist attacks in Israel-Palestine, utilizing data drawn primarily from declassified security records on Israeli state actions during the First Intifada (1987–1992). This type of data source, we argue, contains a more accurate ratio of conciliatory to repressive actions than Dugan and Chenoweth’s media-based data, given state authorities’ attempts at concealing repressive actions while publicizing conciliatory actions during times of intense conflict. We discuss differences in results—including, most centrally, no support for the hypothesized effect of conciliatory state actions—highlighting the theoretical payoffs of examining the Political Process–related factor of varying levels of state control over the political environment.