A System Dynamics Model for Cocaine Prevalence Estimation and Trend Projection

Abstract

In this article the author presents a system dynamics simulation model that reproduces a variety of national indicator data reflecting cocaine use and supply over a fifteen-year period and provides detailed estimates of underlying prevalence. Sensitivity tests are conducted that clarify observed trends such as growth in the compulsive use of crack cocaine and decline in the casual use of cocaine powder. Alternative scenarios with possible policy implications are simulated and projected through the year 2002 and the results are assessed. Researchers and decisionmakers hoping to understand and anticipate the dynamics of illicit drug use may benefit from simulation models that are realistic in detail and broad in scope.