Synthetic Estimation Applied to the Prevalence of Drug Use

Abstract

This article focuses on the application of synthetic estimation. It provides a working definition of synthetic estimation and indicates why synthetic estimation of drug use prevalence almost always requires the simultaneous application of other, complementary estimation procedures. A brief review is provided on recent studies in which synthetic estimation, together with other estimation procedures, was used to estimate the prevalence of cocaine and heroin use. The author then presents a discussion of one specific, real-world application of the synthetic estimation approach that was developed for purposes of policy research. This application led to estimates of roughly two million weekly users of cocaine and 660,000 weekly users of heroin in the United States during 1990. The author concludes with a discussion of some policy implications of these and other estimates of drug use prevalence.