Are Illicit Drugs a Driving Force for Cryptomarket Leadership?

Abstract

Cryptomarkets, i.e., illicit online marketplaces, have gained considerable attention from the media, law enforcement agencies, and researchers. An increasing number of studies have revealed various aspects of these cryptomarkets; however, whether drugs play a major role for competing cryptomarkets to be the market leader, has not been addressed. Weekly sales and the number of listings for the major products on three leading cryptomarkets (Silk Road 2, Agora, and Evolution) were examined using Granger causality tests and interrupted time series analysis. Not only drugs trading on cryptomarkets played a pivotal role in the growth of each cryptomarket, but also a higher increase in drug supply than in competing marketplaces is crucial to become market leaders. The relative supply of drugs plays a larger role when leading marketplaces disappear. Law enforcement agencies should focus on monitoring marketplaces with a larger increase in drug supplies than on competing marketplaces.