The Impact of Marijuana Law Enforcement in an Economic Model of Crime

Abstract

U.S. law enforcement against the sale and possession of marijuana has been estimated to cost close to $8 billion a year in criminal justice resources. Current enforcement is justified if it provides net benefits greater than alternatives such as a legal, regulated market for marijuana. Prior research suggests that current levels of drug enforcement may increase nondrug crime and hard drug use. Here, local rates of property crime, homicide, and nonmarijuana drug possession are estimated as a function of economic conditions, enforcement effectiveness, and arrests for possession or sale of marijuana. The data consists of a pooled sample of over 1300 U.S. counties (1994–2001). The results suggest that marijuana arrests are associated with increases in homicides, burglaries, motor vehicle thefts, and larcenies along with subsequent increases in hard drug arrests. These results raise significant questions about the merits of policies that focus on criminal justice approaches to marijuana control.