Illegal Drugs: Past, Present and Possible Futures

Abstract

Following a long period of increase, the number of drug users in the United States has decreased sharply during the last decade. As it is not clear what caused the change, advocates of different policies are likely to claim credit. This study, simulating major segments of the drug system with a computer model of a sociological theory of patterned deviance, shows that the theory fits the case of drug abuse. Applying the theory to the reported trends, it is concluded that enforcement was not the cause of the reversal, education may well have been a facilitating factor, but there must have been some exogenous force, such as the AIDS scare of the early 1980s, to have triggered the abrupt change.