Macroeconomic Conditions, Voter Turnout, and the Working-class/Economically Disadvantaged Party Vote in Developing Countries

Abstract

Working and lower status citizens are more sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations than their better-off counterparts in the developing world, due to the higher personal stakes involved. This heightened sensitivity affects fluctuations in voter turnout and voter choice across developing democracies. Macroeconomic downturns result in increased voter participation as more lower status voters express their grievances at the polls. This benefits political parties and coalitions with expressly working- and lower-class appeals. This article describes the impact of shifts in voter turnout on party support, the impact of macroeconomic shifts on voter turnout, and the impact of macroeconomic shifts on support for parties that are working-class/economically disadvantaged oriented using regression analysis of aggregate pooled time-series data from 10 countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, Africa, and Asia. Although increased turnout primarily helps parties that are working-class/economically disadvantaged oriented, as is the case in the industrial world, the economic effect on party support is substantially greater.