From Elysian Fields to the Guillotine?

Abstract

This article develops an integrative framework for explaining variation in monthly presidential and prime ministerial approval in Fifth Republic France. Melding theories of executive approval in the Anglo-American and French literatures, the empirical model closely examines macroeconomic indicators alongside contextual factors, such as cohabitation, temporal effects, and variables specific to French sociopolitical culture. The study refines prior models by utilizing the autoregressive integrated moving average technique to improve forecast estimates. The study also incorporates new archival data on unemployment to avoid measurement error. The results of the time-series analyses confirm that poor macroeconomic conditions yield larger drops in presidential approval. Similarly, short-term impacts of strikes and “rally effects” are consistently greater for changes in public confidence in the president. The import of time-decay effects and electoral factors varies dramatically for first and sub-sequent prime ministerial appointments.