Looking Toward the Future

Abstract

Can democracy consolidate in electoral systems without power alternations? Using public attitude data collected by the Afrobarometer in 16 sub-Saharan African countries (2005-2006), as well as country-level variables, this study examines how alternations in power that result from electoral contests affect mass perceptions of democratic durability. By examining durability, we shift the focus from individuals’ own preferences and attitudes regarding democracy to their perceptions about the degree of societal commitment to a democratic regime. Multilevel analysis finds that a lack of alternation among power holders undermines popular confidence that democracy, weak as it may be, will endure. Moreover, the gap in perceptions of democratic durability between the political majority and the minority narrows considerably in systems where one or more alternations have occurred.