Time Will Tell? Temporality and the Analysis of Causal Mechanisms and Processes

Abstract

Causal inference and the logic of historical explanation are grounded in temporality. Yet the relationship between causal analysis and aspects of temporality, such as duration, tempo, acceleration, and timing, is often less clear. Using examples from analyses of institutional change and postcommunist regime transitions, the author argues that aspects of temporality allow us to predict which causal mechanisms can unfold and to differentiate causal sequences. Explicitly specifying the role of temporality can thus improve scholars’ understanding of political mechanisms, sequences, and the processes they constitute.