Party Leaders and Election Outcomes in Britain, 1974-1983

Abstract

It is often suggested that British general elections are becoming more presidential in character, particularly with the increasing emphasis placed by mass media on the character and activities of party leaders. To date, however, there have been few attempts to estimate how much of an effect leaders have on election outcomes, independently of partisan ties. This article uses multivariate techniques to examine the factors that influence a leader's popularity and estimates the effect of leaders on electoral outcomes in Britain in 1974, 1979, and 1983. The results suggest, first, that the popularity of leaders depends on party attachment, political attitudes, and socioeconomic status. Second, both attitudes and the popularity of leaders are influential in determining whether or not voters will defect, with leaders becoming relatively more important in this regard in the 1983 election. Finally, changes in the popularity of party leaders are capable of influencing an election result by a few percentage points, but in none of the three elections examined here was the magnitude of such changes sufficient to produce a different election outcome.