Prospective validation of Bowel Injury Prediction Score for early diagnosis of surgically significant blunt bowel and mesenteric injury

Abstract

Background Blunt bowel and mesenteric injuries (BBMI) are frequently missed despite the widespread use of computed tomography (CT). Early diagnosis for timely management of surgically significant blunt bowel and mesenteric injuries (sBBMI) can be challenging. Several tools predictive for sBBMI have been proposed such as the “Bowel Injury Prediction Score” (BIPS) that is based on presence of abdominal tenderness, white blood cell count ≥17,000/mm3 and CT grade. The utility of this scoring system for early diagnosis of sBBMI has neither been studied in an Indian population nor prospectively validated. Methods A single-centre prospective cohort study was conducted at a Trauma Centre in India. After screening of 1793 patients with blunt trauma abdomen who presented between 1st January 2022 and 31st August 2022 and underwent CT scan, eventually, 80 patients of age >18 years, hemodynamically stable and CT finding suspicious of BBMI were included. BIPS score was calculated. Patients were followed to evaluate the outcome. Results The incidence of sBBMI was 3.06%. Mean age of study patients was 36.2 ± 16.5 years with male predominance (92.5%) and road traffic accidents the commonest mode of injury. Patients with BBMI were more likely to require operative intervention in the presence of abdominal tenderness at presentation (p < 0.01) and CT grade ≥4 (p < 0.01). For patients with WBC counts of ≥17,000/mm3, no statistically significant difference was noted in the need for operative intervention. BIPS ≥2 had 94.5% sensitivity, 72% specificity, 88% PPV, and 86% NPV for identifying patients with sBBMI. Conclusion Calculation of BIPS at the time of presentation can avoid unnecessary delays in surgical management and thereby reduce overall morbidity and mortality even in an Indian setup. However, WBC counts > 17,000/mm3 were not found to be predictive of sBBMI.