Impact of COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, Stringency and Vaccinations on the US Stock Market

Abstract

The socio-economic environment of a country may significantly influence the size and working of the country’s financial markets in the long run. Keeping this in mind, this study aims to analyse the long-run and short-run impact of COVID-19 cases, deaths, stringency index, and vaccinations on the US stock market. Daily time series data ranging from 22 January 2020, to 30 April 2021, was considered in this study. The ARDL bounds test approach was employed to examine long-run and short-run relationships. Our statistical evidence suggests that, in the long run, confirmed cases and stringency have a negative and significant impact on stock markets, whereas vaccinations have a positive and significant effect on the stock markets. This indicates that any public health emergency adversely affects the stock markets, such as a pandemic outbreak. The government should ramp up the efforts towards vaccinating their citizens in the earliest possible timeline. Such actions of resurgence from the pandemic instil confidence in the market. Policymakers should be thoughtful about formulating contingency measures to effectively safeguard the population while preventing the deterioration in investor confidence.