Investigating the Effect of Broad Money Supply on Stock Market Index and Market Capitalization: Evidence from Liberalized India

Abstract

The present study investigates the effect of changes in money supply on both Indian stock market sensitive index and stock market overall capitalization by employing unit root test with break point, Johansen’s cointegration test, vector error correction (VEC) model, VEC Granger causality test, variance decomposition, and impulse response function. The result of the unit root test reveals that all the variables are nonstationary in levels but become stationary at the first-order difference. The unit root test further reveals that there are structural breaks in the mid-1990s or 2000s. The Johansen’s cointegration test reveals that the Indian stock market index and stock market capitalization are individually cointegrated with money supply. Further, the long-run co-movement between the Indian stock market and money supply and stock market capitalization and money supply is found to be positive. The results of the VEC model shows that the error correction term in the lnSENSEX–lnMS model is negative and statistically significant, while the error correction term in the lnMARCAP–lnMS model is found to be insignificant. The VEC Granger causality test shows that there is no short-run causal relationship between the variables. The variance decomposition indicates that both Indian stock market index and stock market capitalization are strongly exogenous. The impulse response function suggests that money supply has an immediate positive effect on both Indian stock market index and stock market capitalization. The investors and fund managers should take investment decisions keeping in view the positive co-movement of Indian stock market performance and broad money supply. The study recommends that the government should avoid aggressive tightening of money supply.