A Prospective Approach to Learning- and Innovation-based Development

Abstract

Development policies need to be based on an integrated interpretation of values, facts and trends. With such an aim, the notion of Sustainable Human Development is described as the normative starting point. It can be fruitfully combined with the Innovation Systems’ conceptualization of some main empirical issues that shape development possibilities; a factual approach is sketched where particular attention is given to issues of power. Such a combination of a normative approach with a factual approach needs to be complemented by a prospective approach. Here, some possible and interrelated outcomes of trends concerning knowledge, production, the environment and inequality are discussed. Probable scenarios, main risks and better alternatives are considered; the last include special combinations of ideas, agency and technology. Inclusive and frugal innovation emerges as a fundamental challenge. The success of related policies appears to be highly dependent on solving the difficult political problem of connecting advanced knowledge and not privileged sectors.