Affiliation:
1. Centre for WTO Studies, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, New Delhi, Delhi, India
2. Infinite Sum Modelling LLC, Seattle, Washington, USA
Abstract
This study identifies and rationalises some of India’s issues and concerns with the signing of the RCEP. By analysing the existing trade balance, import surge trends, dumping and agricultural sensitivities, among other factors, the study justifies India’s decision to remain outside of this mega-FTA. Further, it predicts the impact of tariff elimination under RCEP on various macroeconomic variables of the RCEP member countries by using the GTAP model under two scenarios: (i) India does not join the RCEP and (ii) India joins the RCEP. Results show that India’s GDP would be adversely affected if it joins this agreement, and its overall trade deficit may further deteriorate after joining the RCEP. In terms of the bilateral trade balance, India’s trade deficit with ASEAN and China will grow steeply if it joins the agreement. The study also finds that an RCEP without India may lose its shine as the GDP of most of the other members of the RCEP would be negatively impacted by India’s decision to stay out. JEL Codes: F13, F15, F17, F61, O53
Reference35 articles.
1. ASEAN. (2016). About regional comprehensive economic partnership (rcep), association of Southeast Asian nations (ASEAN). https://asean.org/?static_post=rcep-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership
2. Banga R. (2019). Modelling impact of moratorium on electronic transmissions using CGE: A critique. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 6(8), 391–400. https://journals.scholarpublishing.org/index.php/ASSRJ/article/view/6966/4434
3. Banga R., Gallagher K. P. & Sharma P. (2021). RCEP: Goods market access implications for ASEAN. Global Development Policy Center, Working Paper No. 045, March 2021, Pardee School of Global Studies/Boston University. https://www.bu.edu/gdp/files/2021/03/GEGI_WP_045_FIN.pdf
4. The Mystery of Reciprocal Demand for Regional Trade Partnership: Indian Experience in RCEP Regional Value Chains
5. Is It Finally Time for India's Free Trade Agreements? The ASEAN “Present” and the RCEP “Future”
Cited by
3 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献