What Predicts Graduate Public Health Student Success? Evidence for Admission Committees in a Post–Affirmative Action Landscape

Abstract

Objective: A severe staff shortage and a dearth of professionals from underrepresented backgrounds in the public health workforce are contributing to poor health outcomes in the United States. Schools and programs can mitigate these problems by admitting more graduate public health students overall and from underrepresented backgrounds. We identified predictors of foundational graduate public health course grades and graduate grade point average (GPA), sharing evidence to remove application factors that are admission barriers and do not predict student outcomes. Methods: We conducted a linear regression analysis on demographic and academic factors from 564 graduate public health applications for students at the University at Buffalo who received their degree from January 1, 2016, to February 1, 2021, analyzing age, race and ethnicity, sex, income, undergraduate degree, verbal and quantitative Graduate Record Examination (GRE) percentiles, and undergraduate GPA. Outcomes were grades in foundational public health courses and cumulative graduate GPA. Results: Undergraduate GPA was the best predictor of graduate public health student success, explaining nearly 7% of foundational public health course grades and 29% of graduate GPA. Higher undergraduate GPA contributed to higher course grades and graduate GPA. GRE scores explained <1% of student outcomes. Conclusions: Our findings add to the growing body of research showing that standardized test scores may not predict graduate student outcomes and provide further evidence for the field of public health to consider removing this admission barrier. By doing so, institutions could admit more students to graduate public health programs who can bring needed skills to the market, further diversifying the workforce and public health faculty, to better meet population health needs.