Moving the Needle: Association Between a Vaccination Reward Lottery and COVID-19 Vaccination Uptake in Louisiana

Abstract

Objective: On June 17, 2021, Louisiana launched a lottery campaign to reward residents who received a COVID-19 vaccination. We investigated the association between the lottery and vaccination uptake by characteristics of parishes. Methods: We constructed an interrupted time series based on daily parish-level data on COVID-19 vaccinations to analyze the association with the lottery. We used recursive partitioning to separate vaccination uptake due to the Delta variant from vaccination uptake due to the lottery and limited our study period to May 25 through July 20, 2021. We performed subanalyses that grouped parishes by political affiliation, hesitancy toward COVID-19 vaccines, race and ethnicity, and socioeconomic status to detect heterogeneous responses to the lottery by these characteristics. We ran models separately for parishes in the top and bottom tertiles of each sociodemographic indicator and used a z test to check for differences. Results: The lottery was associated with an additional 1.03 (95% CI, 0.61-1.45; P < .001) first doses per parish per day. Comparing lottery impacts between top and bottom tertiles, we found significantly larger associations in parishes with lower vaccine hesitancy rates, higher percentage of Hispanic population, higher median annual household income, and more people with a college degree. Conclusions: Results suggest that the lottery was associated with increased COVID-19 vaccination uptake in Louisiana. However, larger associations were observed in parishes with an already higher likelihood of accepting vaccines, which raises equity issues about the opportunity created by the lottery and its effectiveness as a long-term behavioral incentive.