Racing Toward Representation

Abstract

Despite 35 years of empirical research, the question of how electoral structure influences Latino representation continues to be debated. Motivated by the uncertainty surrounding electoral systems, in this article, I argue that the inconsistent and inconclusive results of previous research stem from two limitations—one theoretical and the other methodological—of commonly used models. In the following analysis, I use an alternative theoretical conceptualization and the appropriate methodological approach to shed light on several puzzles encountered in the literature. My findings suggest, for example, that electoral structure and voting strength are key components in determining the likelihood of Latino representation, but specific demographic and institutional contexts determine how these matter: Ceteris paribus, ward elections hurt Latino chances of representation, unless there are high levels of segregation within a district. Moreover, I find that the impact of the Latino population is in great part determined by the likelihood that the populace (a) has voting rights (i.e., U.S. citizenship), (b) is not in direct competition with Blacks for elected seats, and (c) resides in an area of the United States with a long history of Latino incorporation. In short, in the race toward representation, Latinos cannot simply tread the same path as their Black counterparts but must forge new roads to victory.