A Reexamination of Congressional Primary Turnout

Abstract

Using original data and ordinary least squares regression analysis, this article examines primary turnout for elections to the House of Representatives in 1992 and 1994. These data are compared to earlier estimates of primary turnout that used a substitute measure. The author finds that the previous measure biased regression coefficients, inaccurately estimating the impact of political party and overestimating the influence of some variables while failing to capture the effects of others. Future research ought to rely on the new measure, used here, because substantive conclusions drawn from analyses that use the old measure are in jeopardy.