The Political Roots of Executive Clemency

Abstract

It is widespread conventional wisdom that presidential pardons—the only way for offenders to remove or eliminate all disabilities that arise from a federal or military offense—are political. We move beyond this belief and assess five broad ways that federal pardons may be systematically influenced by the policy agendas present in a separated powers system. We model the aggregate dispensation of clemency appeals (requests for pardons) using Prais-Winsten regression and find that the probability of denials for executive clemency reflects the president’s own agenda and ideological position, congressional attention to criminal justice issues, and the homicide rate. In sum, both policy signals and the political processes they signify permeate the presidential pardons process.