Rules as "Unseen Participants"

Abstract

This article evaluates the likely consequences of recent rule changes within the Democratic Party, specifically, the decision to require proportional representation in the 1992 primaries and caucuses and to reduce the number of superdelegates. Analysis of statewide data from the 1984 primaries and caucuses shows that the front-runner, Walter Mondale, was the prime beneficiary of the rules due to his overwhelming support among unpledged superdelegates and his more than proportional share of delegates won with a plurality of votes in caucuses and primaries. The combined impact of the allocation system and the use of superdelegates is such that the application of the 1992 rules to the 1984 race could have changed the outcome of the Democratic nomination.