A Practical Nomogram for Predicting the Bleeding Risk in Patients with a History of Myocardial Infarction Treating with Aspirin

Abstract

Background Aspirin is a widely used antiplatelet medication to prevent blood clots, reducing the risk of cardiovascular event. Healthcare providers need to be mindful of the risk of aspirin-induced bleeding and carefully balancing its benefits against potential risks. The objective of this study was to create a practical nomogram for predicting bleeding risk in patients with a history of myocardial infarction treating with aspirin. Methods A total of 2099 myocardial infarction patients with aspirin were enrolled. The patients were randomly divided into two groups, with a 7:3 ratio, for model development and internal validation. Boruta analysis was utilized to identify clinically significant features associated with bleeding. Logistic regression model based on independent bleeding risk factors was constructed and presented as a nomogram. Model performance was assessed from three aspects: identification, calibration, and clinical utility. Results Boruta analysis identified eight clinical features from 25, and further multivariate logistic regression analysis selected four independent risk factors: hemoglobin, platelet count, previous bleeding, and sex. A visual nomogram was created based on these variables. The model achieved an area under the curve of 0.888 (95% CI: 0.845-0.931) in the training dataset and 0.888 (95% CI: 0.808-0.968) in the test dataset. Calibration curve analysis showed close approximation to the ideal curve. Decision curve analysis demonstrated favorable clinical net benefit for the model. Conclusions Our study focused on creating and validating a model to evaluate bleeding risk in patients with a history of myocardial infarction treated with aspirin, which demonstrated outstanding performance in discrimination, calibration, and net clinical benefit.