A Nomogram for Individualized Prediction of Calf Muscular Vein Thrombosis in Stroke Patients During Rehabilitation: A Retrospective Study

Abstract

Objectives: To develop a nomogram for predicting calf muscle veins thrombosis (CMVT) in stroke patients during rehabilitation. Methods: We enrolled 360 stroke patients from the Rehabilitation Medicine Center from December 2015 to February 2019. Of the participants, 123 were included in the CMVT group and 237 in the no CMVT group. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was applied to optimize feature selection for the model. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to construct a predictive model. Performance and clinical utility of the nomogram were generated using the Harrell's concordance index, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Age, Brunnstrom stage (lower extremity), D-dimer, and antiplatelet therapy were associated with the occurrence of CMVT. The prediction nomogram showed satisfactory performance with a concordance index of 0.718 (95% CI: 0.663-0.773) in internal verification. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test, P = .217, suggested that the model was of goodness-of-fit. In addition, the DCA demonstrated that the CMVT nomogram had a good clinical net benefit. Conclusions: We developed a nomogram that could help clinicians identify high-risk groups of CMVT in stroke patients during rehabilitation for early intervention.