Do Scandals Matter?

Abstract

Political science research is conflicted about the impact of political scandals on survival in office. Scholars have found strong negative impacts to some scandals but others have found minimal or no effects. The literature has explored several consequences but no one work examines them collectively. This article examines presidential, gubernatorial, and Congressional scandals from 1972 to 2021 to assess the impact of scandal in a polarizing America. We find the negative consequences from scandals vary across time and institutions. Scandals in the Watergate era led to more resignations in Congress but fewer resignations of White House officials in the 1990s. During the Trump administration, White House officials did not survive in office at rates greater than past eras, demonstrating little support for the “Trump Effect.” However, politicians generally survived scandal more in the polarized era, hinting at the changing role of political scandals.