Modern Congressional Election Theory Meets the 1992 House Elections

Abstract

The events surrounding the 1992 congressional elections—the check-kiting scandal, the last opportunity to convert campaign funds to personal funds, redistricting, and a public allegedly soured on Congress subsequent to pay raises, scandals, and the Thomas-Hill hearings-provided a unique oppor tunity to test the prevailing models of congressional elections. In this research, we analyze the forces that contributed to the coming of 110 new members to the 103rd Congress. Our conclusion is that, while some aspects of the 1992 elections were unusual, the basic statutes of modem congressional election theory still apply if some needed, friendly amendments are added. Candidates continued to behave strategically, for example, but 1992 indicates the importance of developing the concept of strategic behavior for incumbents as well as challengers.