Bringing Out the Hook

Abstract

In this article the authors measure a phenomenon they name “exit talk”: the undertheorized pressures that second-place contenders for presidential nominations face to exit the race. Content analysis of media exit talk from the 2008 Clinton candidacy compared with that of key comparators from other modern presidential campaigns suggests that Clinton experienced greater levels of exit talk than her historical comparators, though less explicit pressure to exit than was exerted on Ronald Reagan in 1976. The authors also find that a higher percentage of Clinton exit talk was unattributed to its source. They investigate the potential causes for these findings and recommend further study of whether this heightened pressure to exit constitutes an unexamined hurdle for female presidential contenders.