Anchoring the Portuguese Voter: Panel Dynamics in a Newer Electorate

Abstract

While Portuguese democracy is no longer so new, its national postelection surveys are, with the first in 2002. On the vital question of what provides the voter a social-psychological anchor, initial evidence gave the nod to party identification over ideological identification. However, party identification was poorly measured, data were cross-sectional, and the models single equation. Fortunately, panel studies are now available for the 2005 legislative and the 2006 presidential elections. Estimating dynamic, multi-equation models with two-stage, instrumental variable regression procedures establishes the preeminence of ideologically driven voting. Furthermore, ideological identification appears composed of a unique pre-democratic component, in addition to the more usual social, moral, and economic elements.