Forecasting future demand for domestic thermal insulation in Wales

Abstract

This paper provides a methodology to quantify the demand for building insulation based on present conditions of the housing stock, the estimated future rates of construction and the legislative requirements. The method has been applied to forecast the maximum potential demand for insulation generated in Wales by the domestic sector between 2016 and 2050 in line with the target set to reduce the UK greenhouse gas emissions of 80% from the 1990 level. The areas of building envelopes that could be insulated are calculated for future retrofit interventions and new dwellings. These areas are then associated to the thermal resistance values expected from the insulation layers. Datasets describing the existing Welsh housing stock are used to estimate the demand for loft and solid wall insulation measures in retrofit interventions, while the demand for roof, floor and wall insulation in new dwellings is estimated using projections of future construction activity in Wales. The results can be used to characterise the dwelling stock, build scenarios of insulation uptake and assess the impacts of different products which would lower greenhouse gas emissions from the domestic sector and stimulate the supply chain for low carbon products.