Testing with Personal Probabilities: 11-Year-Olds Can Correctly Estimate their Personal Probabilities

Author:

Dirkzwager A.1

Affiliation:

1. Twente University, the Netherlands

Abstract

Testing with personal probabilities is an advantageous alternative to multiple choice testing because guessing is eliminated. A crucial condition is that the subjects should be well calibrated. They are well calibrated when they report their true probabilities of being correct. It is shown that, in an ordinary school setting, even 1 l-year-olds can learn to be well calibrated in quite a short time, especially if probability testing is the method they become accustomed to. An interactive computer program to take a test (TestBet), which was used in the experiment, is described. Its use in regular education is feasible, and the educational advantages are discussed.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Applied Mathematics,Applied Psychology,Developmental and Educational Psychology,Education

Cited by 7 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. Knowledge assessment: Squeezing information from multiple-choice testing.;Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied;2015-06

2. Tailored Scoring Rules for Probabilities;Decision Analysis;2011-12

3. The Realism in Children’s Metacognitive Judgments of Their Episodic Memory Performance;Trends and Prospects in Metacognition Research;2010

4. The ?heuristics and biases? bias in expert elicitation;Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society);2007-09-18

5. Child witnesses' metamemory realism;Scandinavian Journal of Psychology;2006-12

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