Risk-based blast-load modelling: Techniques, models and benefits

Abstract

There are many deterministic blast-load methods currently in use, such as (1) those for the ready calculation of explosive pressure, impulse and duration; (2) the derivation of explosive safety distances; or (3) the determination of safety hazards (and other consequences) following an explosive’s detonation. In this article, we argue that deterministic blast-loading methods do not fully account for society’s usual acceptance (or rejection) of the risks associated with damage, safety and/or injury as a result of an explosive blast-load. This article details the state of the art of probabilistic blast-load modelling that supports a quantitative calculation of risk, with respect to damage, safety and injury. The probabilistic models draw data from the literature and from our own field trials. The article details the benefits that flow from this form of blast-load characterisation and concludes with a discussion on how probabilistic methods be used to derive cost–benefit advice with respect to any proposed risk mitigation solution.