The Use of Actuarials at Civil Commitment Hearings to Predict the Likelihood of Future Sexual Violence

Abstract

Some have argued that actuarial methods such as the RRASOR, the MNSOST-R, and the Static-99, can outperform clinical judgments when utilized at a civil commitment hearing to make a prediction. Although actuarial data can be used to identify a group of persons to be considered for possible civil commitment, at present it cannot be used to accurately predict the likelihood of future acts of sexual violence with respect to any specific individual within such a group. For that reason, it might be best to restrict the use of actuarial data to the initial screening process, rather than introducing it at the commitment hearing itself