A Preliminary Analysis of Sexual Recidivism and Predictive Validity of the Static-99R in Men Discharged From State Hospitals Pursuant to California’s Sexually Violent Predator Act

Abstract

We examined the recidivism rates and the predictive validity of the Static-99R in 335 men who were detained or civilly committed and released from California State Hospitals pursuant to the Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Act, and followed up for approximately 21 years from date of hospital admission. In all, 8.7% were arrested or convicted for a new sexual offense during the total follow-up ( N = 335) and 7.8% over a fixed 5-year follow-up ( n = 205). The Static-99R demonstrated small in magnitude discrimination for sexual, violent, and general recidivism (area under the curve [AUC]/C = .56 to .63). Calibration analyses, conducted through expected/observed (E/O) index, demonstrated that the Static-99R overpredicted sexual recidivism, irrespective of whether the Routine or High Risk/Need norms were used. Observed recidivism rates were lower than predicted by Static-99R scores and may be the result of the sample’s older age at release, lengthy hospitalization, or other factors.