Predicting emplacements of improvised explosive devices

Abstract

In this paper we introduce an approach to predict emplacements of improvised explosive devices (IEDs). With a brief review of studies and technology in related areas, this paper identifies and analyzes various factors in a great number of IED/terrorist attacks, and then categorizes the factors/features based on locations and time. By combining the results of analysis with other significant factors, such as casualties, numbers injured, population density, and international impact, this paper proposes an approach to predict IED emplacements with Bayesian inference. The proposed approach has been implemented and the results of testing are consistent with a group of actual incidents.