Mathematical modeling of strategic behavior: the Battle of Midway, 1942

Abstract

In this paper, an innovative discrete dynamical model is presented, which is used to predict the kind of strategic behavior the participants should adopt to win a battle. For study purposes, a computer model is developed to reveal the most critical factors that strategically affect combat and the relationship of dependence between the warring parties. Besides, it can predict the outcome of a battle under specific scenarios. Furthermore, the proposed dynamical system is applied in Midway’s air–naval battle, which was one of the most decisive battles of World War II (WWII). It was a significant turning point in the history of naval warfare in the Pacific Ocean since the victory of the United States marked an end to Japanese expansionist policy, and these are the reason this battle was chosen. The numerical results of the analysis were presented, and the key factors (e.g., persons, decisions, and weather conditions represented by the critical values of model parameters) were highlighted, defining the outcome of the conflict.