Path and policy analyses: a sustainability study of military workforce supply chains

Abstract

This article presents two case studies using system dynamics to analyze the sustainability of military workforce supply chains. The first case is about multi-period force expansion. An analytical expression is presented to relate the expansion target, training capacity, and expansion period. The system dynamics model forecasts the personnel level achievable against the expansion target for varying input of training capacities. This can be used to inform military force planners about the required training capacity and timeframe to achieve the expansion. The second case examines the sustainability of the deployment of a volunteer-based Army reserve unit. The soldiers’ behavior changes due to their deployment experiences (in terms of willingness to deploy) are modeled and their impact on personnel availability is simulated. The second system dynamics model predicts the personnel level sustainability against the required number of soldiers to deploy. It provides insights regarding the required size of the pool of soldiers to support a deployed Army reserve unit, and promotes policy exploration to boost soldiers’ willingness to deploy. In conclusion, this work demonstrates the applicability of system dynamics to assist decision makers in “raising, training, and sustaining” military workforce supply chains.