Does urbanization depend on in-migration? Demography, mobility, and India's urban transition

Abstract

The urban transition is generally imagined as a large-scale permanent migration of people from villages to cities. The formation of new cities is also theorized as occurring through the migration of people. However, recent scholarship implies that parts of India may be witnessing an urbanization process that depends on natural population growth rather than in-migration. This claim carries significant implications for urban theory, but it has never been tested empirically. This article addresses that gap by examining migration patterns in India alongside urbanization—measured in terms of densification of population and built-up area and an economic transition away from agriculture. I find that certain parts of the country, notably the eastern Indo-Gangetic Plain, are exhibiting all the trends constitutive of urbanization even as they experience negative net migration—a phenomenon I term “urbanization from within.” My analysis also highlights that these same regions see high rates of temporary out-migration—suggesting that human mobilities may play a role in the in situ urbanization of rural settlements, but not in the ways that foundational urban and development theories would predict. I discuss the inequalities of India's economic transition and its spatial regime of social welfare as possible causal underpinnings of the trends I observe. The article's findings suggest that urban social scientists should reevaluate long-held assumptions about the relationship between urbanization and migration in the context of 21st-century urban transitions.