Competitive Risk Model Nomogram to Predict Prognosis in Patients Aged Over 65 Years with nonmetastatic Cervical Cancer: A SEER Population-Based Study

Abstract

Objective: The prognostic factors for elderly patients with cervical cancer differ from those of younger patients. Competitive risk events could cause biases in the Cox proportional hazards (PH) model. This study aimed to construct a competitive risk model (CRM) nomogram for patients aged > 65 years with nonmetastatic cervical cancer. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and a total of 1856 patients from 18 cancer registries across the United States diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were included. Kaplan–Meier analysis and log-rank tests were used to compare intergroup survival. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional regression analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors. The cumulative incidence function (CIF) and Fine and Gray's test were used to determine the impact of competitive risk events on prognosis. The CRM nomogram was internally and externally validated using time-dependent receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (time-AUC), Brier scores, Harrell's concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Analyses revealed that histology, age, the International Federation of Gynaecologists and Obstetricians (FIGO) stage, number of in situ malignancies, chemotherapy, radiotherapy (RT), and surgery were independent prognostic factors. The CRM nomogram accurately predicted 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS). The C-indexes and Brier scores of the CRM nomogram were 0.641 and 0.094, respectively, at the 1-year cut-off in the training set. The time-AUC of the CRM nomogram at the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year intervals in the training set were 77.6%, 77.3%, and 74.5%, respectively. The calibration curve demonstrated a favorable concordance. DCA suggested that the nomogram had a good net benefit. Therefore, the Cox model underestimated the weight of risk factors compared to CRM. Conclusions: This study presents the CRM nomogram to predict DSS in patients aged > 65 years with nonmetastatic cervical cancer. It can help clinicians implement more accurate personalized diagnostic and treatment modalities for elderly patients with cervical cancer.