Modelling Determinants of Tourism Demand as a Five-Stage Process: A Discrete Choice Methodological Approach

Abstract

In the tourists' destination choice there are multiple factors involved in their decision. Individuals or families with exactly the same socio-economic and demographic characteristics may choose very different destinations. The paper deals with this heterogeneity problem, recognising that there are taste differences among tourists and that final destination choice is not an independent decision, but the last decision of a set of choices that are determining it. In this sense, it is argued that tourists face a five-stage decision process. First of all, people have to decide whether or not to travel within a period of time. Secondly, those who expect to travel need to estimate a budget for tourism expenses. Thirdly, given the budget, they need to determine the frequency and length of stay of their trip. Fourthly, once a date and the length of stay are proposed, tourists need to choose which kind of tourist destination to visit. Finally, from among all the available destinations that satisfy a tourist's conditions, final destination and mode of transportation are chosen. It is the purpose of this paper to propose a methodological framework for modelling each of these stages and their relationship.