Application of Ensemble Models in Credit Scoring Models

Abstract

Loan default is a serious problem in banking industries. Banking systems have strong processes in place for identification of customers with poor credit risk scores; however, most of the credit scoring models need to be constantly updated with newer variables and statistical techniques for improved accuracy. While totally eliminating default is almost impossible, loan risk teams, however, minimize the rate of default, thereby protecting banks from the adverse effects of loan default. Credit scoring models have used logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis for identification of potential defaulters. Newer and contemporary machine learning techniques have the ability to outperform classic old age techniques. This article aims to conduct empirical analysis on publically available bank loan dataset to study banking loan default using decision tree as the base learner and comparing it with ensemble tree learning techniques such as bagging, boosting, and random forests. The results of the empirical analysis suggest that the gradient boosting model outperforms the base decision tree learner, indicating that ensemble model works better than individual models. The study recommends that the risk team should adopt newer contemporary techniques to achieve better accuracy resulting in effective loan recovery strategies.