Supply-and-demand projections for the health workforce at a provincial level from 2015 to 2025 in Ilam, Iran

Author:

Bazyar Mohammad1ORCID,Noori Hekmat Somayeh2,Rafiei Sima3,Mirzaei Amin1,Otaghi Masoomeh4,Khorshidi Ali5,Mohammadnejad Sara4,Tahmasebi Samane1,Amarloei Ali6,Jalilian Mohsen1

Affiliation:

1. Department of Public Health, Faculty of Health, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Iran

2. Management and Leadership in Medical Education Research Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran

3. Department of HealthCare Management, School of Health, Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Iran

4. Department of Nursing, Faculty of Nursing and Midwifery, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Iran

5. Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Iran

6. Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Faculty of Health, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Iran

Abstract

Background: Human resources are the key component of health systems. It is critical to have the right number of human resources at anytime and anywhere in the health system. This article aims to help local health decision makers to identify potential gaps between the future supply and demand of human resources and to make necessary changes in medical training processes to fill the gap. Methods: An eight-stage process was applied to project the supply and demand of health workers in Ilam province in 2025 for the following fields: public health, environmental health, general medicine, dentistry, pharmacy, nursing and midwifery. To estimate the demand for human resources, a mainly population-based model (manpower-to-population ratio) was applied. A modified version of the Australian dynamic stock and flow model was used to predict the supply of new recruits in 2025. The potential surplus or shortfall in the health workforce was calculated by comparing the supply and demand in 2025. Results: The demand and supply projections for the chosen fields were estimated respectively as: general medicine 457, 709; pharmacy 131, 86; dentistry 86, 251; nursing 949, 1657; midwifery 24, 247; public health 182, 211; and environmental health 92, 225. Conclusions: The current trend of medical graduates will meet the need for human resources in 2025, and there is no need to increase medical student admission. The Education Deputy of Ilam Medical University should take into account the health needs of its catchment area in medical educational processes and training new health-care staff.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

General Medicine

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